Bitcoin Price Recovers, But Futures Sentiment Weakens

While the attitude of the futures market declines, Bitcoin stays high, suggesting heightened apprehension and prudence.

Bitcoin experienced dramatic price swings in the second half of Q1 2025 as it tried to regain its record high of more than $109,000. The beginning of Q2 was particularly difficult, as it momentarily fell to new yearly lows of roughly $74,500. Although there has been a little bounce this week, futures traders appear to be more concerned.

Futures Market Sentiment Dips

According to CryptoQuant's recent analysis, Bitcoin's remarkable surge from November 2024 to February 2025 was not accompanied by a consistent increase in futures market sentiment.

This index peaked briefly during this rise before declining, indicating increased caution and potential profit-taking amid bullish price movement. Since February 2025, mood has deteriorated and deviated from pricing levels that have remained relatively high in the $70k-$80k range.

Such a tendency shows that the derivatives market is experiencing increased fear or diminishing enthusiasm, which could be driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory changes, or market correction predictions. Technical observations show that the sentiment index is currently sitting around 0.4, approaching a crucial support level of 0.2 and confronting resistance near 0.8.

According to the crypto analytic tool, this posture reflected a bearish shift in futures sentiment. Even in the face of high prices, a decreasing sentiment could signal an accumulation phase or eventual consolidation. According to CryptoQuant, unless new catalysts restore trust, Bitcoin's price could fall or stagnate.

Cautious optimism?

Reflexivity Research had a similar perspective, noting that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 35 this week, indicating a cautious, pessimistic stance. While sentiment has calmed since last week, reducing acute panic, investors remain cautious due to macroeconomic concerns and recent market volatility.

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However, the index's tiny uptick implies that panic is dissipating, perhaps paving the way for a more balanced market atmosphere if positive news emerges.

Meanwhile, data show that Bitcoin's recent resurgence is being driven by improved fundamentals and reduced global tariff concerns. On-chain measures support the upswing, such as growing Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) and a decrease in exchange supply, indicating less short-term selling pressure.

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